Apple has rattled many markets—and even created a few—but in this two-part column, I examine four other industries Apple can shake up.
Over the last ten years, Apple has done a rather amazing job of disrupting several industries. By my account, it has dramatically impacted the PC, tablet, consumer electronics, telecommunication, and music industries in a big way. but no stopping there; I believe it is on the cusp of disrupting at least four more major industries within the next three to five years.
The first industry it will shake up is the TV industry. just about every major PC and consumer electronics company is trying to bring out interactive TV, or ITV, and be the first to “own” the market. To date, Google, Microsoft, Samsung, Sony, and even Apple have tried desperately to create the next big thing in TV and, perhaps more importantly, find a way to integrate the Internet and Internet video channels into their new vision for the TV.
In Walter Isaacson’s biography of Steve Jobs, Jobs claims he has “cracked the code” for ITV and of course, everyone is wondering what this means. the most logical answer is that Apple will apply Siri’s voice comprehension technology to the TV user interface and then tie it to its iCloud service. in essence, it will marry all of your content for viewing on multiple screens with the TV being the one focused on entertainment. Whether it will be delivered in an Apple TV-like box outside the TV or an actual TV itself is still a big question. regardless, Apple’s attempt to create a new approach to TV interfaces and link it to unified personal content, if done right, could be revolutionary.
Imagine being able to just tell the TV to find The big Bang Theory and it locates all available versions on broadcast, cable, the DVR, and online. Or ask it about the football player who just made a touchdown and the bottom of the screen displays his stats. Or ask Siri about Yosemite and it will find all related video and Web content available, giving you exact answers to your query on the TV.
But perhaps its greatest feat will be the ability to decipher instantly the plethora of Web-based videos and neatly show relevant content on screen. For example, say you want to learn how to roast a turkey. Siri could search its databases—and I mean any database, including any you’ve bookmarked on your iOS devices now available in the cloud—to find out all of the best shows on TV, DVR, and the Web about turkey roasting. As I wrote in last week’s column, Siri is a voice technology that is actually a front end to multiple search engines. More importantly, it will change the game when it comes to man-machine interfaces. while Siri applied to the iPhone is a good start for Apple, I am convinced that it will apply Siri to all of its products in the future. On the TV, it could have a dramatic effect on the way people interact with their televisions in the future. and since Apple can tie it to its iTunes and iCloud services as well, it will make it very difficult for competitors to catch up anytime soon.
This will be the most disruptive advance in the television industry since the introduction of color. It will eventually bury the remote and put the entire TV industry on a course to use voice as the new “remote.” It will find ways to join broadcast, cable, DVR, and Internet content into manageable channels, uniting it in the cloud and displaying it on voice demand on TV screens throughout the home. It looks like Apple will be the one to take the TV industry into this new era.
The second industry Apple is poised to disrupt is the auto industry. in my search for a new car, a major criterion has been the ability to integrate my phone and its content into the navigation and sound system. I want a Bluetooth connection as a speakerphone, but I also want it to use the content in my phone as an alternative to play music and podcasts wirelessly.
I was pleasantly surprised to see how far Microsoft’s sync for autos has come. For the time being, this will be a big step for me since it also has voice prompts and commands. To some degree its voice UI is pretty sophisticated, though it’s no Siri.
Now, imagine if Apple began working with the auto companies directly and, perhaps, was able to get a 7-inch iPad with iOS into these cars. (This would be the equivalent of Apple making a full Apple TV.) in this case, it could have a 3G chip inside and be able to directly connect to the Internet. Of course, it would have Siri’s smart voice UI and voice comprehension technology. while most of its greatest features, such as searching for the closest bank, cleaners, or pizza place, would be restricted to parking mode, many other voice-driven features could be part of the UI and service. It could receive and respond to email and text via voice. More importantly, it would be tied to Apple’s iTunes and iCloud services, meaning you would always have access to all your content and could call it up on your car’s display on demand.
Another strategy would be to make the iPhone or iPad the host and the car’s navigation screen the video terminal that displays available content. If you have used an iPad with AirPlay, you already understand the potential. using Apple TV, I literally mirror the content on my iPad on my big screen TV. If I use my iPhone 4S, I already have the Siri voice UI, at least for my content. Now imagine having that type of voice UI and content connection in your car. sure there would be restrictions while driving, but having that on the car’s screen running iOS and Siri could make the car’s information system even more relevant. Again, Apple could shake the auto industry, bringing it into an information-driven century. Information and personalized media would become a key part of the driving experience and Apple would force others to follow, in one way or another.
In next week’s column, I will reveal the two other industries that I believe Apple can disrupt, making iOS, iTunes, and iCloud relevant to an even larger worldwide audience.
For more from Tim Bajarin, follow him on Twitter @bajarin. Tim Bajarin is one of the leading analysts working in the technology industry today. He is president of Creative Strategies (creativestrategies.com), a research company that produces strategy research reports for 50 to 60 companies annually—a roster that includes semiconductor and PC companies, as well as those in telecommunications, consumer electronics, and media. Customers have included AMD, Apple, Dell, HP, Intel, and Microsoft, among many others. you can e-mail him directly at tim@creativestrategies.com.
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