Analysts and investors like to speculate that the iPad killer is around the corner but Apple continues to surprise. the iPad global tablet market share increased from 65.7% in Q1 2011 to 68.3% in Q2 2011 according to market research firm IDC. [1]
While it’s no doubt that competitors will eventually introduce meaningful products against the iPad, efforts so far have stumbled. for instance, Google’s Android performs better on smartphones than tablets and Microsoft’s much anticipated Windows 8 operating system expected to run on traditional desktops, tablets, and smartphones is still a year away from launching. So for the next half year to a year, the iPad looks to have an open runway.
While we expect iPad units sales will increase from 55.5 million in 2012 to 112 million by the end our forecast period, Trefis members expect an increase from 62 million to 125 million during the same period.
We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $510 for Apple’s stock, about 30% above the current market price of $385.
Apple Gains Tablet Market Share, Android Loses
Apple’s iPad continues to munch away on market share, notching just above 68% in Q2 2011. It is also seeing more demand for its 3G tablets that should boost its average pricing. Android lost steam with its market share declining from 34% to 27% during the same period, partly due to HP’s TouchPad fire sale for $99 and also because Android uses different operating systems in tablets and smartphones. here is where Apple has an advantage as its iOS works for both the iPhone and iPad helping developers in synchronizing tasks.
Google however plans to have a news OS, Ice Cream Sandwich, expected to work on both smartphones and tablets and is expected to be released later 2011.
Microsoft Confident of Windows 8
Microsoft recently gave a detailed preview of its new and upgraded OS Windows 8 at its BUILD developer event and is scheduled for release in 2012. Windows 8 is expected to be the biggest Windows refresh since Windows 95 and will have the flexibility to work on desktops, tablets and smartphones.
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It will also have an online app store service comparable to Apple’s App store with a touch-centric interface that is prevalent in consumer technology today. [2] Moreover, it will run on both ARM and Intel processors, which opens up a wide range of Windows 8 based products, and this could give Apple’s iPad and iPhone a good run for its money.
Our complete analysis for Apple’s stock is here.